COVID-19 explained from an epidemiologist’s point of view

It’s now been a couple of weeks since Canada closed it’s borders and we have gone on lockdown. We see a wide range of opinions from “professionals” as to what we should or should not be doing.

I decided to write this post to clarify some aspects that seem to be driving people into thinking we should not be doing “social distancing.”

Firstly: Social distancing = Vaccine

Social distancing is acting as a vaccine in absence of one. You can see from the well illustrated infographic below that social distancing in and of itself is almost as effective as having a vaccine.

By Dr. Akiko Iwasaki, Professor at Yale University School of Medicine

Second: Herd immunity in this case is not ethical.

As an epidemiologist and public health specialist a common practice for NON-FATAL disease is building herd immunity. The idea of building herd immunity by not exercising “social distancing” in this instance would be similar to ethnic cleansing.

Let me explain.

Without social distancing and or immunization we will have a very grim end result. Not to mention, place a huge strain on our medical system and economic system.

Dr. Iwasaki displays the potential loss of life by practicing ‘herd immunity.’

For non-life threatening diseases, as mumps, herd immunity could be seen as ‘safe practice’ as death was extremely rare. Measles however leads to higher infant mortality therefore ‘herd immunity’ is not considered a safe practice.

COVID-19 is fatal. It can be increasingly fatal for those who have increased exposure to it, as our health care workers. This is called increased ‘viral load.’ It is used to explain why some young and healthy people die from the disease.

Please understand what these terms actually mean before using them. We are all at risk.

Thirdly: All current data is biased.

Unless we had decided from the very beginning to make one country an example, including keeping the country away from media so behaviours are not altered, ALL of the current global data shows the effects of social distancing.

Lack of testing and only testing at a health care facility means there is a huge selection bias and this cannot be accurately extrapolated to the community at large. In addition, considering we have already intervened through media, social distancing, self-isolation, etc. we are only proving with our data what social distancing is doing for us: saving lives!

Fourth: Behaviours have changed.

People keep brining up Sweden. They use the example that Sweden has carried on as though nothing has happened. Unless Sweden does not have a clue of what is happening to the world around them: trust me, they have changed.

Their universities are closed. People are aware of COVID-19. They are not acting the same as always. There cases are also higher than surrounding counties by not enforcing more strict adherence.

Breaking the lockdown cycle: Hygiene is our personal weapon.

The best thing we have done is work as a collective to save our global population.

Let’s not be afraid to interact with people, but know you have the power to continue practicing good hygiene. Cover your mouth, wash your hands with soap and water regularly, never touch your face and respect others personal space.

Maintain your overall health.

Another aspect is maintaining your overall health. This means mental and physical wellbeing. If you are consumed with the news, this definitely will not boost your mental health. Keep active, at home or outside. Eat and choose healthy foods.

I see a lot of comments on people eating unhealthy during this time. This is probably the worst thing you can do. There is a virus out there that does not have a cure! This is the time to make sure your immune system is at the top of it’s game. Fruits and vegetables are our greatest gifts.

Social distancing DOES NOT = Lockdown.

Governments respond to crisis by underestimating a societies and individuals capacity to handle themselves for the greater good.

We should take ownership and responsibility. Our actions will need to embrace our changing climate. We will ultimately decide our fate and economy through our own personal practices.

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